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[Music]

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for our listeners the LA Times this week

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is doing a five-part LA Times editorial

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board editorial on climate change and

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the very first one starts with the world

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is drifting steadily toward a climate

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catastrophe and of course goes on to say

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we need radical change yesterday

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essentially but yeah it makes a number

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of assertions that at this point are

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becoming commonly accepted many people

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and that's why I thought going through

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some of these enlightened letting you

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address them so why don't we start with

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you addressing that first sentence the

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world is drifting steadily toward a

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climate catastrophe true no the world is

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drifting steadily or unsteadily towards

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a modest warming

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yeah human beings do have something to

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do with the warming that began in the

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late 70s but maybe ended in the late

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1990s or continues through the early

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21st century but the temperature records

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have been changed it didn't use to show

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any warming from say 2002 to 2014 and

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don't ask me why

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whenever these temperature records are

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changed they become colder in the early

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years and sometimes warmer in the later

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years so the warming trend gets greater

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from the same data if you can believe

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that and when you say changed changed by

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whom in this case our National Oceanic

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and Atmospheric Administration that's a

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National Climatic Data Center also known

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as the National centers for

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environmental information

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- climate and they're saying that what

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was regionally reported as the

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temperatures for those years turns out

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to have been wrong and we're now

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correcting it and we're showing that

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actually it was warming more than we

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first reported yes and we corrected it

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we used to take these sea surface

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temperatures measured by satellite

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satellites are good the universal

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coverage you know their biases and

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everything else and we switched to a

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network of drifting buoys and

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temperatures taken on board ship on the

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intake tubes of shift and you can you

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can wonder how good those temperatures

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from ships are the ship heats up and up

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in the Sun the intake tube can be deep

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on a big ship it can be shallow on a

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small ship and the tests of the

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temperatures are really the very suspect

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and then it was discovered that the buoy

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data ran cooler than the ship data so

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what did our government do in its

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infinite wisdom it adjusted the buoy

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data upward to match the ship data so

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here's the cool part we're putting out

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more and more buoys over the course of

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say this century and so that means you

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have more and more data that's

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artificially adjusted upward that was

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guaranteed i underscore the word

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guaranteed to put a warming trend in the

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data and as you believe that this was

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politically motivated I don't know I

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mean the the the national center for

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environmental information - climate in

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Asheville has a past I can give you an

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example their head is a guy by the name

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of Tom Karl who's a very nice fellow

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very bright and he was in charge of the

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first National Climate Assessment this

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is a thing that comes out every four

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years unless there's a Republican in

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office and then it doesn't come out and

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the first one came out in 2000 between

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the during the whole election tussle in

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December of November of that year and I

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was reviewer and I looked at the models

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that they were using to project

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the future climate for the 21st century

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and I asked the models a very simple

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question can you reproduce 10 year

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running means of temperature beginning

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in 1900 in other words 1900 to 1909 1901

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to 1910 etc all the way on up to the end

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of the 20th century and what happened

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when he applied the model to the data is

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it put more noise in the data than was

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in the raw data that seems impossible

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that is precisely the same thing as

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giving a student a 4-part for choice

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multiple choice tests and having the

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student get less than 25 percent correct

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it's negative knowledge so I brought

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that to Tom Carroll I said it hey Tom I

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just wanted to give you a heads up that

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this is what I found and this is what we

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did for 10 year running means and he

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wrote back to me an email and said ok

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well we just didn't use to we did the

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same thing and we can just use 10 year

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running means we use 1 5 10 20 and 25

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and in each case in each and every case

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the model added more noise to the data

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than was in the raw data and I said Tom

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you can't use that and you know using

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that to guide policy is exactly

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analogous to giving ritalin to a patient

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with high blood pressure

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for high blood pressure it's malpractice

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and that it went through and the second

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National Assessment had even greater

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problems and third one was billed as a

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political document by the Obama

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administration I think there's a lot of

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shenanigans that are going on on this

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issue

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what's your a climate change skeptic yet

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no I'm not a climate change skeptic ok

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how did how could you say I believe in

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climate change I know that climate is

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not a stationary variable

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I'm pretty sure that people have

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something to do with the changes that

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have been observed beginning in the late

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20th century well could be because yeah

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that's actually was gonna be my point is

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that even though I'm calling you a

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climate change skeptic and you're

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disagreeing with that but yeah I wanted

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to make the point that you do believe

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that there has been warming and that

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that warming has been caused at least in

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part by humans so right yeah so maybe a

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good starting point though because I

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don't even understand that and not being

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an expert I'm even skeptical of that so

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well I'll tell you why I say that yeah

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the great philosophers science Karl

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Popper allow that if you have a theory

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and it makes what are difficult

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predictions and you can verify those

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different predictions you should be able

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to continue to entertain your hypotheses

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for example the fact that gravity would

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bend why according to Einstein that was

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a difficult all theory and it turns out

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in the 1919 Eclipse that was testable

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and in fact it happened so the difficult

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prediction of climate models of the

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greenhouse theory is that the

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stratospheric temperature goes down not

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up

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because the greenhouse gases are

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trapping and reradiating radiation

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mostly in the lower atmosphere so the

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flux through the stratosphere is

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different and indeed if you look at

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satellite since temperatures

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stratosphere

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they drop beginning in the record in

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1979 and then an odd thing happens when

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the warming of the twentieth century

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century appeared to have slowed down or

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stopped in the late 20th century the

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stratospheric temperature stopped

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cooling - and what caused that three

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most important words in the science are

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I don't know I don't think anybody does

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but that correlation to you tends to

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tell you that yes there's something

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going on

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stratosphere cooling is very telling so

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that let me get my globe here and bring

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it into view for people because some

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sometimes you know you have scientists

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that are all over the map you have

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competing theories and as you say you

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can't even trust the data it necessarily

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so for me sometimes I like to just use

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basic common sense and then see how that

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applies and so one thing I like to talk

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about is looking at a globe and first of

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all you recognize that what is it 75% is

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water you know 72 I think something like

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72 percent right 72 percent is water

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and then you've got barren land over 90

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percent of the land that's there what do

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you mean by barren nothing there no no

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industry nothing that's creating

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greenhouse gases that is not natural

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right most of the most of the occupied

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land is is I mean industrial itit's land

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is in the middle attitudes some in the

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tropics very little in the southern

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hemisphere so I was thinking that you

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could take needles and just stick them

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in this globe in the various points

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where there's some serious stuff being

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shot up into the atmosphere and you

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would probably you could probably stick

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maybe 50 needles in this thing where

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they were there's serious urban centers

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if you if you had these 50 needles in

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here where there's the serious things

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being pumped up into this guy you would

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still have a globe that is pretty much

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empty so just it's just hard for me to

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believe that these little needles where

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little puffs of smoke are coming out of

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in this huge globe again made up mostly

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of water is somehow having the effect of

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getting trapped and by the way I don't

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know how far away using my hands how far

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away would it have been trapped from

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this globe uh-huh oh no no we're near

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that far super slide up to up basically

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the main change is in the troposphere so

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that would be probably in the bottom

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quarter of an inch or something like

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that

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so about

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quarter of an inch off of this globe

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would be where the this where the gases

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are getting are getting trapped so

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that's a very you know fifth-grade

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analysis of of what's happening and glow

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but you're telling me that yes Jim

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believe it or not I know it's hard to

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believe but those little puffs of smoke

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coming out of those 50 spots on the

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globe are warming us well a lot of those

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little puffs of smoke are called

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automobiles and they're pretty mobile

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but more importantly the source for

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increased carbon dioxide in the

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atmosphere is almost exclusively the

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combustion of fossil fuels and fossil

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fuels being old have a different ratio

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of the isotope carbon 13 to the normal

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generic carbon 12 and by looking at time

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history of the ratio of c-13 the c12 in

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the atmosphere you can determine whether

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in fact fossil carbon is getting in the

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atmosphere and yes it is and it's

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getting an amounts that are consistent

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with the concentrations that are being

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observed so yeah that's real here's a

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point when you look at this issue

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oftentimes people say there are two

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points of view on this the Los Angeles

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Times point of view the world's coming

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to an end or the point of view there's

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no such thing there's no such thing as

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an enhanced greenhouse effect

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carbon dioxide doesn't have much of an

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effect there's a third ground which is

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yeah the basic science is probably

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pretty good but the details we probably

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would do better by letting nature fill

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in the detail seen as we've been putting

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this stuff in the atmosphere in

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considerable quantities since World War

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two so Nature has had 70 years to

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declare how it responds to us enhancing

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the carbon dioxide concentration of the

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figure and frankly the response is not

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00:13:31,410 --> 00:13:28,990
that good it looks at the wall to be at

278
00:13:34,560 --> 00:13:31,420
the low end of the projections that are

279
00:13:36,420 --> 00:13:34,570
made by all these climate models is the

280
00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:36,430
kind of the name of John Christie it was

281
00:13:42,150 --> 00:13:39,010
sort of the father of the climate

282
00:13:43,350 --> 00:13:42,160
University of Alabama in Huntsville and

283
00:13:47,610 --> 00:13:43,360
he was testifying in front of Congress

284
00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:47,620
he's testified several times and he

285
00:13:54,870 --> 00:13:51,370
showed the performance of the models

286
00:13:56,670 --> 00:13:54,880
versus reality and you're gonna see a

287
00:14:02,040 --> 00:13:56,680
picture of this that we're gonna present

288
00:14:04,889 --> 00:14:02,050
to you what you see is a a solid line

289
00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:04,899
that is the average temperature change

290
00:14:11,490 --> 00:14:09,010
predicted by these models for what we

291
00:14:13,769 --> 00:14:11,500
call the free troposphere say from 5000

292
00:14:17,519 --> 00:14:13,779
feet on up to 30,000 feet in the

293
00:14:19,319 --> 00:14:17,529
atmosphere and then there's a whole

294
00:14:21,660 --> 00:14:19,329
bunch of colored spaghetti on this chart

295
00:14:24,329 --> 00:14:21,670
and the colored spaghetti is each one of

296
00:14:27,470 --> 00:14:24,339
these 32 different model families and

297
00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:27,480
then much further down on the chart our

298
00:14:30,980 --> 00:14:29,410
satellite temperatures temperatures

299
00:14:32,579 --> 00:14:30,990
measured by weather balloons and

300
00:14:34,949 --> 00:14:32,589
temperatures measured by something

301
00:14:37,650 --> 00:14:34,959
called reanalysis of synoptic data I

302
00:14:40,610 --> 00:14:37,660
won't go into what that is but you can

303
00:14:42,530 --> 00:14:40,620
see all those three sources of real data

304
00:14:46,710 --> 00:14:42,540
look the same

305
00:14:49,019 --> 00:14:46,720
and they are very far apart in their

306
00:14:53,730 --> 00:14:49,029
warming from when the record starts in

307
00:14:56,189 --> 00:14:53,740
1979 to now very far apart from what the

308
00:14:58,620 --> 00:14:56,199
satellite spaghetti shows but if you

309
00:15:01,470 --> 00:14:58,630
look carefully you'll see that there's

310
00:15:05,579 --> 00:15:01,480
one piece of spaghetti then in fact

311
00:15:07,980 --> 00:15:05,589
matches what's being observed and again

312
00:15:10,319 --> 00:15:07,990
call the special prosecutor because it's

313
00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:10,329
the Russian model Russian model is

314
00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:12,490
obviously in collusion with the data and

315
00:15:21,870 --> 00:15:18,850
so if we were following best scientific

316
00:15:24,689 --> 00:15:21,880
practice on global warming what we would

317
00:15:27,269 --> 00:15:24,699
do is we would use the Russian model as

318
00:15:28,139 --> 00:15:27,279
the backbone of our projections that's

319
00:15:32,220 --> 00:15:28,149
what happens in weather forecasting

320
00:15:34,170 --> 00:15:32,230
every day I think their Russian sorry to

321
00:15:34,800 --> 00:15:34,180
be clear the Russian model so far has

322
00:15:37,620 --> 00:15:34,810
been doing the

323
00:15:39,900 --> 00:15:37,630
best job at [\h__\h] at predictive our

324
00:15:42,660 --> 00:15:39,910
and it has less warming in it than any

325
00:15:44,700 --> 00:15:42,670
of the others fine by the way what what

326
00:15:47,820 --> 00:15:44,710
do the Russians generally say when they

327
00:15:49,410 --> 00:15:47,830
go to the various climate summits in

328
00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:49,420
Paris etc what has been the position

329
00:15:56,579 --> 00:15:52,690
I've never I've never mmm the Russian

330
00:16:00,870 --> 00:15:56,589
modelers I don't know however so you cut

331
00:16:05,460 --> 00:16:00,880
out you say virgin the the old one was

332
00:16:08,250 --> 00:16:05,470
acronym IMF TM for and again it has the

333
00:16:15,090 --> 00:16:08,260
least warming of all the 32 families of

334
00:16:17,460 --> 00:16:15,100
models if if left to its own devices it

335
00:16:19,710 --> 00:16:17,470
probably would predict about one point

336
00:16:22,769 --> 00:16:19,720
six degrees of warming over the course

337
00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:22,779
of the 21st century that's not enough

338
00:16:28,019 --> 00:16:25,050
for anybody to really get excited about

339
00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:28,029
but they had out had a new version I an

340
00:16:36,110 --> 00:16:32,410
MC m5 and guess what Ryan MC m5

341
00:16:39,390 --> 00:16:36,120
independently simulates the pause the

342
00:16:41,490 --> 00:16:39,400
slowdown or stopping of warming that

343
00:16:43,290 --> 00:16:41,500
occurred beginning in the late 20th

344
00:16:46,530 --> 00:16:43,300
century and then it extended through

345
00:16:49,860 --> 00:16:46,540
about 2014 that's very interesting to me

346
00:16:52,950 --> 00:16:49,870
that it does that independently and it

347
00:16:56,579 --> 00:16:52,960
does it by by having a fairly strong

348
00:16:59,400 --> 00:16:56,589
component of solar variability in it if

349
00:17:01,380 --> 00:16:59,410
we were using best practice again that's

350
00:17:04,169 --> 00:17:01,390
the model we would use I'll give you an

351
00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:04,179
example of how best practice works every

352
00:17:08,699 --> 00:17:06,250
day when the weather forecast comes out

353
00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:08,709
from the National Weather Service they

354
00:17:11,970 --> 00:17:09,970
have eight models to choose from

355
00:17:14,309 --> 00:17:11,980
globally they don't take all eight

356
00:17:16,590 --> 00:17:14,319
models and average them up let's say AHA

357
00:17:18,929 --> 00:17:16,600
that's the forecast but that's what

358
00:17:21,870 --> 00:17:18,939
we're doing in climate we take all four

359
00:17:23,910 --> 00:17:21,880
32 families of models and average them

360
00:17:26,929 --> 00:17:23,920
up even though the Russian one is very

361
00:17:30,210 --> 00:17:26,939
cool the rest of them are so warm that

362
00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:30,220
using that is guaranteed to predict too

363
00:17:35,430 --> 00:17:32,890
much warming and then we take all the

364
00:17:42,750 --> 00:17:35,440
effects downstream effects from those

365
00:17:45,570 --> 00:17:42,760
projected changes and things like

366
00:17:48,450 --> 00:17:45,580
changes in agriculture etc and I assure

367
00:17:50,490 --> 00:17:48,460
you that the

368
00:17:53,220 --> 00:17:50,500
a view of those models should give one

369
00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:53,230
cause another example and I'll show you

370
00:18:00,240 --> 00:17:55,210
another picture here this one's a little

371
00:18:03,030 --> 00:18:00,250
more complicated but this is now in the

372
00:18:05,430 --> 00:18:03,040
vertical so the bottom of the graph is

373
00:18:07,530 --> 00:18:05,440
at the surface and on the top of the

374
00:18:09,740 --> 00:18:07,540
graph is up about fifty or sixty

375
00:18:12,660 --> 00:18:09,750
thousand feet in the atmosphere and

376
00:18:16,890 --> 00:18:12,670
these are the this colored spaghetti is

377
00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:16,900
the warming rate predicted by all the

378
00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:18,850
different families of models and you can

379
00:18:26,190 --> 00:18:22,930
see again in the reality are these dots

380
00:18:29,130 --> 00:18:26,200
on the left-hand side of the chart those

381
00:18:31,260 --> 00:18:29,140
are the weather balloon data for

382
00:18:32,360 --> 00:18:31,270
different sets of them averaged up at

383
00:18:35,100 --> 00:18:32,370
different levels in the atmosphere

384
00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:35,110
that's a good data set to use because

385
00:18:40,740 --> 00:18:39,010
when you take whether you discover that

386
00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:40,750
when you launch a weather balloon you

387
00:18:45,600 --> 00:18:43,330
have to calibrate the thermistor before

388
00:18:49,350 --> 00:18:45,610
you let it loose so these gonna be good

389
00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:49,360
data and again the warming rates that

390
00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:53,050
are predicted are much higher than

391
00:18:58,350 --> 00:18:55,330
what's being observed when you get on up

392
00:19:02,520 --> 00:18:58,360
to about 40,000 feet in the atmosphere

393
00:19:04,290 --> 00:19:02,530
the predicted warming rate is seven

394
00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:04,300
times did you hear no it's not seven

395
00:19:12,060 --> 00:19:07,570
tenths seven times what's being observed

396
00:19:14,310 --> 00:19:12,070
now why is that important because in the

397
00:19:15,930 --> 00:19:14,320
this is in the tropics this is from 20

398
00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:15,940
degrees north to 20 degrees south

399
00:19:21,150 --> 00:19:18,010
almost all the moisture that the world

400
00:19:23,220 --> 00:19:21,160
depends upon for agriculture comes from

401
00:19:26,970 --> 00:19:23,230
evaporation from the tropical oceans and

402
00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:26,980
so you will get that long if you get the

403
00:19:32,670 --> 00:19:30,570
vertical temperature wrong because the

404
00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:32,680
vertical temperature determines how much

405
00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:34,090
upward motion there is in the atmosphere

406
00:19:39,120 --> 00:19:36,850
Sosa determines how the big

407
00:19:41,340 --> 00:19:39,130
thunderstorms can inject moisture in the

408
00:19:44,220 --> 00:19:41,350
atmosphere which then is transported

409
00:19:47,610 --> 00:19:44,230
towards the poles so if you get that

410
00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:47,620
wrong everything else falls apart these

411
00:19:53,070 --> 00:19:49,330
forecasts you're gonna make for

412
00:19:54,990 --> 00:19:53,080
agriculture you if you got the

413
00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:55,000
precipitation right you got it right for

414
00:19:58,950 --> 00:19:57,250
the wrong reason because the place where

415
00:20:01,530 --> 00:19:58,960
all the moisture comes from was modeled

416
00:20:02,310 --> 00:20:01,540
incorrectly this is a very serious

417
00:20:04,590 --> 00:20:02,320
problem

418
00:20:08,100 --> 00:20:04,600
and by the way looking at that chart

419
00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:08,110
again I want to look closely there's one

420
00:20:13,259 --> 00:20:10,090
piece of colored spaghetti that get it

421
00:20:16,860 --> 00:20:13,269
gets it right in the vertical as far as

422
00:20:18,779 --> 00:20:16,870
other potential causes let's talk about

423
00:20:20,610 --> 00:20:18,789
the ocean for a second because we talked

424
00:20:23,220 --> 00:20:20,620
about it being 72% you've got ocean

425
00:20:26,340 --> 00:20:23,230
currents and microbes that live in the

426
00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:26,350
ocean and and so forth I mean do you

427
00:20:29,279 --> 00:20:27,970
think the ocean there could be something

428
00:20:31,740 --> 00:20:29,289
going on with our oceans that's causing

429
00:20:35,820 --> 00:20:31,750
these changes no it would be the other

430
00:20:40,980 --> 00:20:35,830
way around and there is always this

431
00:20:45,629 --> 00:20:40,990
question where is the heat going in the

432
00:20:47,220 --> 00:20:45,639
ocean if it's in the surface okay that's

433
00:20:50,490 --> 00:20:47,230
gonna have a strong interaction with the

434
00:20:52,619 --> 00:20:50,500
atmosphere if the heat that we put in

435
00:20:55,399 --> 00:20:52,629
there mixes way down into the deep ocean

436
00:20:58,289 --> 00:20:55,409
I don't really care

437
00:21:00,539 --> 00:20:58,299
it'll take incredibly long time to get

438
00:21:02,820 --> 00:21:00,549
out of there and by that time

439
00:21:07,710 --> 00:21:02,830
god knows what civilization is gonna

440
00:21:11,970 --> 00:21:07,720
resemble so the oceans the warming of

441
00:21:14,759 --> 00:21:11,980
the oceans is a little problematical but

442
00:21:17,610 --> 00:21:14,769
it it is occurring again I'd like to

443
00:21:18,659 --> 00:21:17,620
emphasize one word in my discussion of

444
00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:18,669
this which is lukewarm

445
00:21:25,379 --> 00:21:22,570
I think the planet is luke warming yeah

446
00:21:30,299 --> 00:21:25,389
the temperature's going up in fits and

447
00:21:35,310 --> 00:21:30,309
starts probably but it doesn't appear to

448
00:21:38,639 --> 00:21:35,320
be on the trajectory that would really

449
00:21:40,049 --> 00:21:38,649
cause a major issue again taking a look

450
00:21:42,799 --> 00:21:40,059
at that colored spaghetti you can see

451
00:21:45,299 --> 00:21:42,809
the Russian model is the coldest one

452
00:21:47,129 --> 00:21:45,309
it's the one that seems to match both in

453
00:21:52,350 --> 00:21:47,139
the vertical and in bulk

454
00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:52,360
tropical purpose fear so yeah is it is

455
00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:54,129
it your belief that the Russian model is

456
00:21:58,710 --> 00:21:55,450
the most accurate because it's perhaps

457
00:22:06,090 --> 00:21:58,720
the least politicized I'll have no idea

458
00:22:09,419 --> 00:22:06,100
I have no idea I do know that the heat

459
00:22:11,220 --> 00:22:09,429
capacity of the ocean the amount of

460
00:22:14,730 --> 00:22:11,230
temperature change you get for a given

461
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:14,740
change in radiation is twice as much as

462
00:22:19,360 --> 00:22:16,010
it is in the other model

463
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:19,370
and that's interesting because then

464
00:22:24,100 --> 00:22:21,530
everything's gonna warm up a lot more

465
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:24,110
slowly and some of the warming is gonna

466
00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:27,890
really be attenuated and that seems to

467
00:22:34,570 --> 00:22:32,570
be what's being observed okay let's go

468
00:22:37,150 --> 00:22:34,580
back to the LA Times thing and address

469
00:22:39,580 --> 00:22:37,160
some of the things in there the changing

470
00:22:42,070 --> 00:22:39,590
climate is no longer an abstract threat

471
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:42,080
lurking in our distant future it is upon

472
00:22:48,370 --> 00:22:46,250
us we feel it we see it in our longer in

473
00:22:50,799 --> 00:22:48,380
deeper droughts in in our brutal

474
00:22:51,659 --> 00:22:50,809
hurricanes and raging hyper destructive

475
00:22:56,380 --> 00:22:51,669
wildfires

476
00:22:59,560 --> 00:22:56,390
wow what a bunch of of overblown and

477
00:23:02,020 --> 00:22:59,570
false rhetoric here I got another chart

478
00:23:07,690 --> 00:23:02,030
for ya will you explain let me explain

479
00:23:09,370 --> 00:23:07,700
before we throw it up in 1970 satellite

480
00:23:13,090 --> 00:23:09,380
coverage weather satellite coverage

481
00:23:16,570 --> 00:23:13,100
became global and so that means that we

482
00:23:20,860 --> 00:23:16,580
can see every hurricane tropical cyclone

483
00:23:22,870 --> 00:23:20,870
on the planet since 1970 we can get

484
00:23:26,850 --> 00:23:22,880
really good estimates of how strong they

485
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:26,860
are and a guy by the name of Ryan Maui

486
00:23:33,970 --> 00:23:30,530
has been doing this for years publishes

487
00:23:37,650 --> 00:23:33,980
that and you take you take the

488
00:23:40,690 --> 00:23:37,660
Hurricanes and their wind speed and

489
00:23:42,700 --> 00:23:40,700
multiplied the two the multiply the wind

490
00:23:45,990 --> 00:23:42,710
speed times time and you get the power

491
00:23:51,100 --> 00:23:46,000
of hurricanes global power of hurricanes

492
00:23:53,340 --> 00:23:51,110
so here's a chart of what he calls the

493
00:23:57,039 --> 00:23:53,350
accumulated cyclone energy index

494
00:24:00,730 --> 00:23:57,049
beginning in 1970 and what do you see

495
00:24:03,430 --> 00:24:00,740
you don't see any trend at all no trend

496
00:24:07,450 --> 00:24:03,440
whatsoever no relationship with mean

497
00:24:09,070 --> 00:24:07,460
surface temperature what so ever oh yeah

498
00:24:14,770 --> 00:24:09,080
we have computer models that say that

499
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:14,780
hurricanes should produce more rain but

500
00:24:20,049 --> 00:24:17,450
they also say the signal won't come out

501
00:24:21,690 --> 00:24:20,059
of the noise until about 2080 that's a

502
00:24:24,399 --> 00:24:21,700
pretty long time from now

503
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:24,409
so yeah no there's no there's nothing

504
00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:28,570
thing is just a dead letter drought in

505
00:24:37,409 --> 00:24:29,690
he

506
00:24:45,610 --> 00:24:42,249
wildfires again in California we have

507
00:24:48,220 --> 00:24:45,620
years long periods of below normal

508
00:24:50,980 --> 00:24:48,230
precipitation years long periods of fire

509
00:24:54,490 --> 00:24:50,990
above normal precipitation if you take a

510
00:24:58,840 --> 00:24:54,500
look in the early 20th century it was

511
00:25:03,220 --> 00:24:58,850
extremely rainy when the large migration

512
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:03,230
from the east people looking for golden

513
00:25:08,950 --> 00:25:05,450
sight California came in I imagine it

514
00:25:12,100 --> 00:25:08,960
was green fairly far into the summer but

515
00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:12,110
here's the thing about California and

516
00:25:20,169 --> 00:25:14,690
you can you can you can quote Clifford

517
00:25:22,570 --> 00:25:20,179
Moss professor Moss M a SS I believe

518
00:25:26,710 --> 00:25:22,580
from University of Washington Department

519
00:25:29,110 --> 00:25:26,720
of meteorology every year California

520
00:25:32,710 --> 00:25:29,120
gets extremely dry at the end of summer

521
00:25:34,269 --> 00:25:32,720
it doesn't matter whether the rainfall

522
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:34,279
in the winter previous winter was above

523
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:35,090
or below normal

524
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:37,610
it gets to the threshold where it's

525
00:25:49,149 --> 00:25:43,490
ignites very very easily and if you

526
00:25:49,869 --> 00:25:49,159
don't manage the underbrush in the

527
00:25:51,730 --> 00:25:49,879
forest

528
00:25:55,330 --> 00:25:51,740
you're gonna build up tremendous amounts

529
00:25:58,029 --> 00:25:55,340
of fuel that I looked at live footage of

530
00:26:00,490 --> 00:25:58,039
the Paradise fire a couple years ago

531
00:26:03,700 --> 00:26:00,500
where somebody actually drove through it

532
00:26:06,850 --> 00:26:03,710
and the amount of what's called litter

533
00:26:10,810 --> 00:26:06,860
on the forest floor was mind-boggling

534
00:26:13,899 --> 00:26:10,820
that was an explosion waiting to happen

535
00:26:15,999 --> 00:26:13,909
I understand that some cooler heads out

536
00:26:17,649 --> 00:26:16,009
in California are now realizing that we

537
00:26:21,190 --> 00:26:17,659
really ought to be managing that forest

538
00:26:24,279 --> 00:26:21,200
a little better and that would go a long

539
00:26:27,159 --> 00:26:24,289
way towards solving this issue but

540
00:26:29,769 --> 00:26:27,169
California is the home of wildfires at

541
00:26:32,379 --> 00:26:29,779
the end of summer it's dry and the more

542
00:26:34,570 --> 00:26:32,389
vegetation there is to burn the more

543
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:34,580
it's gonna burn well and you made a

544
00:26:39,549 --> 00:26:36,730
point I think at a love-in show that

545
00:26:41,499 --> 00:26:39,559
when you look at the cost of these

546
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:41,509
things of course the cost is going to be

547
00:26:45,630 --> 00:26:43,210
higher because there's more

548
00:26:47,220 --> 00:26:45,640
damage that can be done and the value of

549
00:26:49,230 --> 00:26:47,230
everything is much higher when you have

550
00:26:50,730 --> 00:26:49,240
wildfires in California where real

551
00:26:53,210 --> 00:26:50,740
estate is so expensive of course it's

552
00:26:55,500 --> 00:26:53,220
gonna be very costly yeah well you know

553
00:26:57,360 --> 00:26:55,510
the fact that matter is when you look at

554
00:26:59,789 --> 00:26:57,370
weather-related damages you've got it

555
00:27:02,549 --> 00:26:59,799
exactly right we have more stuff and

556
00:27:05,700 --> 00:27:02,559
more people and higher property values

557
00:27:08,580 --> 00:27:05,710
in the way of the weather a guy who

558
00:27:11,539 --> 00:27:08,590
studies this is Roger Pelkey jr. out of

559
00:27:15,060 --> 00:27:11,549
University of Colorado and he uses

560
00:27:17,610 --> 00:27:15,070
insurance industry data which if

561
00:27:21,649 --> 00:27:17,620
anything would be biased towards more

562
00:27:26,070 --> 00:27:21,659
damages so they can charge more and

563
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:26,080
takes a look at global the percent of

564
00:27:34,700 --> 00:27:31,690
global GDP that is damaged by weather

565
00:27:38,610 --> 00:27:34,710
and climate issues from year to year and

566
00:27:40,350 --> 00:27:38,620
there's a slight negative trend in it in

567
00:27:43,889 --> 00:27:40,360
other words after you allow for the fact

568
00:27:45,990 --> 00:27:43,899
that yeah we have more stuff in the way

569
00:27:49,620 --> 00:27:46,000
of the weather and we have more people

570
00:27:52,740 --> 00:27:49,630
with more stuff then and then that is

571
00:27:56,070 --> 00:27:52,750
reflected in GDP that as a percentage of

572
00:27:57,740 --> 00:27:56,080
global GDP weather-related damages are

573
00:28:00,980 --> 00:27:57,750
going down not up

574
00:28:02,970 --> 00:28:00,990
yes it's just like the hurricane issue

575
00:28:04,980 --> 00:28:02,980
yeah I think it's interesting how the

576
00:28:08,279 --> 00:28:04,990
activists every time there's some

577
00:28:14,820 --> 00:28:08,289
extreme weather that's got to be climate

578
00:28:19,500 --> 00:28:14,830
change and yeah in doing that they're

579
00:28:23,090 --> 00:28:19,510
poisoning science because as Karl Popper

580
00:28:27,060 --> 00:28:23,100
we've already mentioned in this talk

581
00:28:28,529 --> 00:28:27,070
wrote repeatedly if you have a

582
00:28:31,860 --> 00:28:28,539
scientific theory that explains

583
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:31,870
everything it's not science because it

584
00:28:39,659 --> 00:28:36,010
can't be tested and there's two favorite

585
00:28:40,289 --> 00:28:39,669
examples of what he called pseudoscience

586
00:28:43,889 --> 00:28:40,299
things

587
00:28:45,450 --> 00:28:43,899
claimed to be scientific but in fact art

588
00:28:51,060 --> 00:28:45,460
because they explain everything

589
00:28:55,500 --> 00:28:51,070
our Marxism and psychoanalysis so yeah

590
00:28:57,110 --> 00:28:55,510
when we attribute every weather event to

591
00:28:59,490 --> 00:28:57,120
global warming and countless

592
00:29:02,760 --> 00:28:59,500
convoluted explanation which is always

593
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:02,770
post hoc reasoning by the way oh yeah we

594
00:29:07,230 --> 00:29:04,330
can see now how this happened from

595
00:29:09,180 --> 00:29:07,240
global warming you're not doing science

596
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:09,190
anymore you're doing go and I I used to

597
00:29:12,420 --> 00:29:10,810
have fun with it and say that oh when

598
00:29:14,340 --> 00:29:12,430
it's really cold a really cold day in

599
00:29:17,610 --> 00:29:14,350
the winter up guess there's no global

600
00:29:18,620 --> 00:29:17,620
warming look look how cold it is but you

601
00:29:22,170 --> 00:29:18,630
can't do that either

602
00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:22,180
but now but now they've more from global

603
00:29:26,130 --> 00:29:24,130
warming to climate change what is your

604
00:29:27,900 --> 00:29:26,140
understanding about how that shift

605
00:29:31,410 --> 00:29:27,910
happened from calling it global warming

606
00:29:35,460 --> 00:29:31,420
to calling it climate change well this

607
00:29:38,790 --> 00:29:35,470
is only anecdotal I would guess that

608
00:29:40,380 --> 00:29:38,800
because it wasn't really warming at a

609
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:40,390
rate that appeared to be pretty

610
00:29:47,940 --> 00:29:43,890
substantial we'll have to say that well

611
00:29:51,270 --> 00:29:47,950
you know warming will cause other

612
00:29:53,700 --> 00:29:51,280
climate effects okay so we think it

613
00:29:58,230 --> 00:29:53,710
would and so we'll call it climate

614
00:29:59,970 --> 00:29:58,240
change now unfortunately you know take a

615
00:30:01,560 --> 00:29:59,980
look at all kinds of fields of data that

616
00:30:06,330 --> 00:30:01,570
you might be interested in take a look

617
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:06,340
at global precipitation rainfall you

618
00:30:12,630 --> 00:30:09,490
don't see very much anywhere you do see

619
00:30:15,900 --> 00:30:12,640
some areas that are getting drier the

620
00:30:17,370 --> 00:30:15,910
Pacific Southwest being one of them and

621
00:30:21,210 --> 00:30:17,380
you see some areas that are getting

622
00:30:23,370 --> 00:30:21,220
wetter the United States northeast is

623
00:30:26,190 --> 00:30:23,380
one of those but averaged across the

624
00:30:29,550 --> 00:30:26,200
planet we don't see any real consistent

625
00:30:33,300 --> 00:30:29,560
trends so climate change is something

626
00:30:37,230 --> 00:30:33,310
used to catch everything becomes known

627
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:37,240
one thing though it's really a bait and

628
00:30:40,950 --> 00:30:39,010
switch to switch from global warming to

629
00:30:42,930 --> 00:30:40,960
climate change because global warming

630
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:42,940
warming of the lower layer of the

631
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:45,610
atmosphere is what drives all these

632
00:30:49,710 --> 00:30:47,410
perspective changes changes in climate

633
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:49,720
so you really should be just just

634
00:30:53,970 --> 00:30:51,610
looking at the warming variable it's the

635
00:30:56,850 --> 00:30:53,980
critical one by the way it appears to me

636
00:31:01,230 --> 00:30:56,860
the new term is climate crisis

637
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:01,240
CNN uses that very routinely as if it's

638
00:31:05,460 --> 00:31:03,610
not pejorative at all they call it they

639
00:31:07,380 --> 00:31:05,470
ask they're asking about what what's the

640
00:31:09,420 --> 00:31:07,390
effect that the climate crisis is having

641
00:31:11,010 --> 00:31:09,430
on our hurricanes Wow

642
00:31:14,670 --> 00:31:11,020
[Music]

643
00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:14,680
I have another illustration here which

644
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:18,730
I'm probably gonna get you the the whole

645
00:31:22,340 --> 00:31:20,290
thing that all hurricanes are slowing

646
00:31:25,740 --> 00:31:22,350
down and they're producing more rainfall

647
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:25,750
if you bet I have the main illustration

648
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:29,530
from that paper and it's very clear that

649
00:31:34,050 --> 00:31:32,770
there are two sets of data I'm looking

650
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:34,060
at it that's why I'm gonna give it at

651
00:31:44,090 --> 00:31:41,170
Sinai and say from 1980 this is the

652
00:31:46,770 --> 00:31:44,100
chart you're eventually gonna see from

653
00:31:51,570 --> 00:31:46,780
1982 now which is the end of the chart

654
00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:51,580
there's no change at all there was a

655
00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:54,130
period in the 1970s where there were

656
00:31:59,340 --> 00:31:57,010
zero hurricanes installed nobody knows

657
00:32:03,540 --> 00:31:59,350
why that happened and then after they

658
00:32:06,330 --> 00:32:03,550
went back to their normal stall rate it

659
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:06,340
stayed the same what about the fact that

660
00:32:12,510 --> 00:32:09,490
we're looking at such a short blip of a

661
00:32:15,050 --> 00:32:12,520
period of time and that if you were

662
00:32:18,750 --> 00:32:15,060
flipping a coin ten thousand times

663
00:32:22,530 --> 00:32:18,760
you're gonna get runs of twenty heads in

664
00:32:24,630 --> 00:32:22,540
a row is there any thing to that analogy

665
00:32:26,270 --> 00:32:24,640
when we look at what this may be and

666
00:32:29,790 --> 00:32:26,280
whether this might just be randomness

667
00:32:31,350 --> 00:32:29,800
again twenty heads and rows you have to

668
00:32:33,270 --> 00:32:31,360
flip it many more than ten thousand

669
00:32:35,220 --> 00:32:33,280
times to get a 50 percent probability of

670
00:32:37,140 --> 00:32:35,230
that you know wow you're an extra

671
00:32:39,990 --> 00:32:37,150
statistician I'm impressed you can look

672
00:32:46,170 --> 00:32:40,000
that up when I'm playing a probability

673
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:46,180
chart but yes I didn't know is the

674
00:32:53,190 --> 00:32:51,250
answer to your question is the rate of

675
00:32:58,080 --> 00:32:53,200
carbon dioxide addition to the

676
00:33:01,410 --> 00:32:58,090
atmosphere and say since World War two

677
00:33:07,830 --> 00:33:01,420
is that pretty unprecedented yeah

678
00:33:12,570 --> 00:33:07,840
probably is but so what's it

679
00:33:14,220 --> 00:33:12,580
so is teen pregnancy yeah that you could

680
00:33:15,540 --> 00:33:14,230
line up statistics with each other and

681
00:33:17,100 --> 00:33:15,550
say that went up and this went up at the

682
00:33:18,270 --> 00:33:17,110
same time but doesn't one cause the

683
00:33:20,090 --> 00:33:18,280
other right why don't we why don't we

684
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:20,100
talk about

685
00:33:29,100 --> 00:33:25,450
the whole the real scary thing the real

686
00:33:32,610 --> 00:33:29,110
scary thing in global warming is that

687
00:33:34,650 --> 00:33:32,620
Greenland which is huge contains 11

688
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:34,660
percent of the world's freshwater locked

689
00:33:41,100 --> 00:33:37,450
up in its ice and Greenland suddenly

690
00:33:44,850 --> 00:33:41,110
sheds its ice and if it did that there

691
00:33:49,290 --> 00:33:44,860
are be 23 feet of sea level rise fairly

692
00:33:51,930 --> 00:33:49,300
quickly that'd be a lot fortunately we

693
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:51,940
now have studies that have gone back

694
00:33:57,750 --> 00:33:55,450
into eras where it was quite a bit

695
00:34:01,230 --> 00:33:57,760
warmer in Greenland and for a longer

696
00:34:03,900 --> 00:34:01,240
period of time then we can do it by

697
00:34:06,660 --> 00:34:03,910
burning fossil fuels and Greenland held

698
00:34:10,230 --> 00:34:06,670
the vast majority of its ice it didn't

699
00:34:13,290 --> 00:34:10,240
fall off at the beginning of not the

700
00:34:18,180 --> 00:34:13,300
current interglacial but the last

701
00:34:22,830 --> 00:34:18,190
interglacial so about 180 118 thousand

702
00:34:24,870 --> 00:34:22,840
years ago a danish team dug a core

703
00:34:26,490 --> 00:34:24,880
through the ice and you can see from

704
00:34:28,410 --> 00:34:26,500
looking at the chemistry in the various

705
00:34:33,420 --> 00:34:28,420
years you can see what the temperature

706
00:34:37,710 --> 00:34:33,430
was and it was about 6 to 8 degrees

707
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:37,720
celsius average warmer than the 20th

708
00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:40,810
century for the summers for 6,000 years

709
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:46,810
because the earth orbital variations at

710
00:34:53,430 --> 00:34:50,050
the beginning of and off a nice aged his

711
00:34:55,590 --> 00:34:53,440
son and lined up with the seasonal tilt

712
00:34:58,140 --> 00:34:55,600
in a way that created a very large

713
00:35:00,750 --> 00:34:58,150
warming of the northern hemisphere and

714
00:35:04,170 --> 00:35:00,760
it was warmer than fact in the beginning

715
00:35:07,020 --> 00:35:04,180
of the current interglacial there has to

716
00:35:09,450 --> 00:35:07,030
be some kind of a real disturbance to

717
00:35:12,510 --> 00:35:09,460
end an ice age you know if you think

718
00:35:15,060 --> 00:35:12,520
about it get an ice age in your mind

719
00:35:18,060 --> 00:35:15,070
pretty easily you just get it cold

720
00:35:20,190 --> 00:35:18,070
enough that snow sticks around doesn't

721
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:20,200
melt and then more and more and more

722
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:24,970
solar radiation is not absorbed well and

723
00:35:29,190 --> 00:35:27,010
there's also another warming period that

724
00:35:32,370 --> 00:35:29,200
you referred to on on Levin I believe

725
00:35:34,829 --> 00:35:32,380
you said it was a late 18-hundreds

726
00:35:37,529 --> 00:35:34,839
and what what that obviously wasn't

727
00:35:39,870 --> 00:35:37,539
caused by car carbon emissions it's the

728
00:35:45,410 --> 00:35:39,880
early 1900's early nineteen hundred's so

729
00:35:49,170 --> 00:35:45,420
what caused that I don't know it warmed

730
00:35:53,670 --> 00:35:49,180
beginning around 1910 if we trust the

731
00:35:57,210 --> 00:35:53,680
surface temperatures it warmed between

732
00:36:01,279 --> 00:35:57,220
the 1910 to 1945 at the same rate that

733
00:36:05,309 --> 00:36:01,289
it warmed in the late 20th century and

734
00:36:07,559 --> 00:36:05,319
again the early 21st is debatable but

735
00:36:12,839 --> 00:36:07,569
less let's just accept the records that

736
00:36:16,469 --> 00:36:12,849
we have so what caused such a warming in

737
00:36:19,890 --> 00:36:16,479
the early 20th century it's not carbon

738
00:36:22,650 --> 00:36:19,900
dioxide we had the background carbon

739
00:36:24,690 --> 00:36:22,660
dioxide is 280 parts per million and

740
00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:24,700
when that second first warming started

741
00:36:30,989 --> 00:36:27,130
in the 20th century it was only eighteen

742
00:36:34,229 --> 00:36:30,999
parts per million higher now it's 125

743
00:36:36,599 --> 00:36:34,239
parts per million higher than the in the

744
00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:36,609
background concentration if you got four

745
00:36:41,039 --> 00:36:39,130
tenths of a degree C of warming which is

746
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:41,049
what happened in the early 20th century

747
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:44,650
or eighteen parts per million of co2 and

748
00:36:48,930 --> 00:36:47,170
it would be so hot now we wouldn't be

749
00:36:50,279 --> 00:36:48,940
having this discussion because that

750
00:36:52,349 --> 00:36:50,289
would mean the sensitivity of

751
00:36:56,279 --> 00:36:52,359
temperature carbon dioxide would have to

752
00:36:59,759 --> 00:36:56,289
be outrageously high so nobody knows I

753
00:37:02,900 --> 00:36:59,769
think what caused that but and here's

754
00:37:06,209 --> 00:37:02,910
the here's the big button

755
00:37:08,969 --> 00:37:06,219
this came out in science magazine right

756
00:37:13,190 --> 00:37:08,979
before the 2016 election we can discuss

757
00:37:16,249 --> 00:37:13,200
why that happens a little little later

758
00:37:19,589 --> 00:37:16,259
all those computer models are tuned

759
00:37:22,469 --> 00:37:19,599
their parameters are fiddled with to

760
00:37:26,039 --> 00:37:22,479
make them match the climate of the 20th

761
00:37:27,930 --> 00:37:26,049
century so the models are tuned to say

762
00:37:29,579 --> 00:37:27,940
that the warming of the early 20th

763
00:37:33,739 --> 00:37:29,589
century was in fact caused by human

764
00:37:37,170 --> 00:37:33,749
activity that's that's an absurdity and

765
00:37:39,380 --> 00:37:37,180
then they tune get the late 20th century

766
00:37:41,700 --> 00:37:39,390
warming so when you match up the

767
00:37:44,370 --> 00:37:41,710
computer models versus the surface

768
00:37:45,900 --> 00:37:44,380
temperature hey looks pretty good

769
00:37:48,390 --> 00:37:45,910
because they are tuned to do

770
00:37:50,730 --> 00:37:48,400
but when you get off the surface which

771
00:37:52,980 --> 00:37:50,740
is what John Christie does it is

772
00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:52,990
congressional testimony you can see that

773
00:37:57,450 --> 00:37:55,170
they have a wildly divergent and

774
00:38:01,740 --> 00:37:57,460
probably the price of tuning those

775
00:38:04,500 --> 00:38:01,750
models was complete screw-up

776
00:38:08,910 --> 00:38:04,510
the tropical atmosphere that we talked

777
00:38:12,860 --> 00:38:08,920
about earlier in this program so what

778
00:38:15,750 --> 00:38:12,870
happened was how this all came out is

779
00:38:19,290 --> 00:38:15,760
every time the United Nations produces a

780
00:38:21,900 --> 00:38:19,300
climate report they get a collection of

781
00:38:24,780 --> 00:38:21,910
global climate models that are collated

782
00:38:26,490 --> 00:38:24,790
by the US Department of Energy and so

783
00:38:28,350 --> 00:38:26,500
for the last report which came out in

784
00:38:30,390 --> 00:38:28,360
2013

785
00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:30,400
and there's a new one coming out soon by

786
00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:33,370
the way but for the last report people

787
00:38:39,150 --> 00:38:37,810
had to send in their models to do e they

788
00:38:40,950 --> 00:38:39,160
had to send in what's called a frozen

789
00:38:43,230 --> 00:38:40,960
code model this is the model that we're

790
00:38:44,730 --> 00:38:43,240
going to use this is the model that you

791
00:38:47,660 --> 00:38:44,740
can use to compare to all the other

792
00:38:51,630 --> 00:38:47,670
models and one of the modeling groups

793
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:51,640
like Max Planck Institute or is about to

794
00:38:56,220 --> 00:38:53,170
send their model in but their chief

795
00:38:58,710 --> 00:38:56,230
modeler Ernst rettner was unavailable to

796
00:39:03,420 --> 00:38:58,720
work on I don't know why and so what's

797
00:39:06,750 --> 00:39:03,430
left two of the lesser lights to put the

798
00:39:10,740 --> 00:39:06,760
frozen code model together and they got

799
00:39:13,260 --> 00:39:10,750
it to work and warming in it was over

800
00:39:15,780 --> 00:39:13,270
seven degrees Celsius which was way out

801
00:39:18,570 --> 00:39:15,790
of line compared to the other models and

802
00:39:20,790 --> 00:39:18,580
so it was quoted in the science magazine

803
00:39:24,180 --> 00:39:20,800
article we had to get that warming down

804
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:24,190
and so the play with different variables

805
00:39:32,700 --> 00:39:29,290
to get it down down and down so this

806
00:39:34,650 --> 00:39:32,710
caused quite a stir because as indicated

807
00:39:41,700 --> 00:39:34,660
in the science magazine article by Paul

808
00:39:44,310 --> 00:39:41,710
Busan in late October of 2016 they

809
00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:44,320
didn't want this tuning to come out

810
00:39:51,660 --> 00:39:48,610
because people who might be skeptical

811
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:51,670
and you should be skeptical I think if

812
00:39:55,260 --> 00:39:52,930
you're not skeptical you're not

813
00:39:57,150 --> 00:39:55,270
scientifically healthy but people who

814
00:39:59,460 --> 00:39:57,160
might be skeptical will seize upon the

815
00:40:01,950 --> 00:39:59,470
tuning of the models

816
00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:01,960
an excuse to not really believe them

817
00:40:08,730 --> 00:40:06,490
very much and he was of course right so

818
00:40:11,609 --> 00:40:08,740
then a paper came out by a guy by the

819
00:40:13,710 --> 00:40:11,619
name of Frederick Hardin who was the

820
00:40:15,599 --> 00:40:13,720
head model it for the French and was

821
00:40:20,099 --> 00:40:15,609
called the art and science of climate

822
00:40:22,650 --> 00:40:20,109
model tuning it was the Judy curry you

823
00:40:26,970 --> 00:40:22,660
ought to look up judith curry calm she's

824
00:40:30,540 --> 00:40:26,980
probably the most blogged scientist on

825
00:40:32,550 --> 00:40:30,550
global climate change she wrote in her

826
00:40:34,770 --> 00:40:32,560
blog that if you're gonna read one

827
00:40:39,930 --> 00:40:34,780
climate modeling paper in your life read

828
00:40:42,570 --> 00:40:39,940
that paper by or Dan or tanta how you

829
00:40:45,270 --> 00:40:42,580
might take a parameter and fiddle with

830
00:40:48,390 --> 00:40:45,280
it to produce the quote there at least

831
00:40:53,250 --> 00:40:48,400
are his words the anticipated acceptable

832
00:40:54,870 --> 00:40:53,260
range of change so whoa wait a minute so

833
00:40:59,520 --> 00:40:54,880
we have this box it's got all these

834
00:41:02,970 --> 00:40:59,530
knobs on it that we can turn to tune to

835
00:41:04,650 --> 00:41:02,980
get a certain output and we tuned it to

836
00:41:09,510 --> 00:41:04,660
give an answer that we think is he

837
00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:09,520
anticipated acceptable answer that's not

838
00:41:13,170 --> 00:41:10,690
science anymore boss

839
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:13,180
that's mathematical philosophy and

840
00:41:19,349 --> 00:41:16,810
they're all tuned every last one of them

841
00:41:22,589 --> 00:41:19,359
turns out to be tuned including the

842
00:41:26,460 --> 00:41:22,599
Russians I presume the Russian models

843
00:41:29,910 --> 00:41:26,470
too so here's the thing

844
00:41:31,770 --> 00:41:29,920
why did this happen why would the

845
00:41:33,270 --> 00:41:31,780
climate modeling community all the

846
00:41:36,630 --> 00:41:33,280
sudden come out say okay we're gonna

847
00:41:39,920 --> 00:41:36,640
fess up we're tuning our models and we

848
00:41:42,630 --> 00:41:39,930
really really don't like to do this so

849
00:41:46,140 --> 00:41:42,640
we don't want we want these models to be

850
00:41:49,620 --> 00:41:46,150
freer and cleaner so you know give us

851
00:41:53,490 --> 00:41:49,630
more money to clean this up give us a

852
00:41:55,589 --> 00:41:53,500
lot more money to clean this up that

853
00:41:59,190 --> 00:41:55,599
paper all that stuff came out in late

854
00:42:00,740 --> 00:41:59,200
October of 2016 the original paper the

855
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:00,750
[\h__\h] damp paper was probably written

856
00:42:12,170 --> 00:42:07,450
somewhere in 1915 maybe mid 1915 or

857
00:42:15,799 --> 00:42:12,180
something the paper was finally accepted

858
00:42:18,109 --> 00:42:15,809
in actually March of 17 but everybody

859
00:42:21,970 --> 00:42:18,119
had copies of it why did they want this

860
00:42:23,930 --> 00:42:21,980
out because there is no chance that

861
00:42:26,299 --> 00:42:23,940
Hillary Clinton's not going to be

862
00:42:28,970 --> 00:42:26,309
elected president she's more of a hawk

863
00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:28,980
on climate change than Obama was and if

864
00:42:36,799 --> 00:42:34,890
us modelers go and say this president we

865
00:42:39,440 --> 00:42:36,809
really need help with our mom both said

866
00:42:41,089 --> 00:42:39,450
we actually aren't behaving as well as

867
00:42:44,809 --> 00:42:41,099
they should we need really reliable

868
00:42:46,519 --> 00:42:44,819
predictions they'll get tons of my god

869
00:42:49,849 --> 00:42:46,529
can you imagine what was like on the

870
00:42:53,260 --> 00:42:49,859
morning of November 9th this community

871
00:42:56,960 --> 00:42:53,270
all of a sudden what oh how can this be

872
00:42:59,480 --> 00:42:56,970
because the reason I really believe that

873
00:43:01,609 --> 00:42:59,490
they put that out was to built the

874
00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:01,619
government and that means you and me for

875
00:43:03,980 --> 00:43:02,130
more money

876
00:43:06,470 --> 00:43:03,990
interesting they thought for sure of the

877
00:43:09,680 --> 00:43:06,480
be sure thing let me ask you one more

878
00:43:12,380 --> 00:43:09,690
time than oh one one more time than have

879
00:43:14,390 --> 00:43:12,390
logic one more time well we need more

880
00:43:17,230 --> 00:43:14,400
logic on this issue what one more

881
00:43:20,089 --> 00:43:17,240
question about that early warming in

882
00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:20,099
1900s yes we really don't know what

883
00:43:26,029 --> 00:43:23,690
caused that I don't think we do okay but

884
00:43:29,180 --> 00:43:26,039
theoretically unless it was a flip of a

885
00:43:31,519 --> 00:43:29,190
coin situation something caused it could

886
00:43:33,289 --> 00:43:31,529
it be that whatever caused that which we

887
00:43:38,839 --> 00:43:33,299
don't know what it is is what's causing

888
00:43:41,589 --> 00:43:38,849
it now probably not because of the

889
00:43:45,349 --> 00:43:41,599
concurrence of stratospheric cooling

890
00:43:49,099 --> 00:43:45,359
with the lower atmosphere and and

891
00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:49,109
surface warming we don't have a lot of

892
00:43:55,970 --> 00:43:50,970
evidence from the stratosphere obviously

893
00:43:58,430 --> 00:43:55,980
during the early 20th century but you

894
00:44:00,920 --> 00:43:58,440
know if I were gonna pick a culprit for

895
00:44:05,240 --> 00:44:00,930
that I'd say probably some interaction

896
00:44:07,039 --> 00:44:05,250
of Sun with other systems but I don't

897
00:44:11,180 --> 00:44:07,049
know I don't think anybody really

898
00:44:12,710 --> 00:44:11,190
yes but tuning models to say ah that's

899
00:44:15,740 --> 00:44:12,720
all caused by human beings in fact the

900
00:44:19,940 --> 00:44:15,750
latest mantra that were seen from NASA

901
00:44:21,470 --> 00:44:19,950
is that all climate changed all climate

902
00:44:25,540 --> 00:44:21,480
changed since the Industrial Revolution

903
00:44:29,350 --> 00:44:25,550
is caused by human beings that means

904
00:44:32,340 --> 00:44:29,360
to make that assertion is to imply that

905
00:44:36,210 --> 00:44:32,350
you have a perfect model which you don't

906
00:44:38,470 --> 00:44:36,220
and that there is no noise in the data

907
00:44:39,940 --> 00:44:38,480
you know that that four tenths of a

908
00:44:42,940 --> 00:44:39,950
degree in your twentieth century to me

909
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:42,950
that's the scientific literature you

910
00:44:47,880 --> 00:44:46,370
used to say that's a sign of what the

911
00:44:50,860 --> 00:44:47,890
natural noise and the climate is

912
00:44:51,910 --> 00:44:50,870
alarming in there so it's really it

913
00:44:53,860 --> 00:44:51,920
should be really interesting to people

914
00:44:55,780 --> 00:44:53,870
that you know you you are buying into

915
00:44:58,180 --> 00:44:55,790
the fact that there has been some

916
00:45:00,070 --> 00:44:58,190
warming and that it has been caused by

917
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:00,080
humans but you're saying that it's not

918
00:45:05,110 --> 00:45:03,530
clear exactly how much of that how much

919
00:45:10,660 --> 00:45:05,120
warming that truly has been as a result

920
00:45:13,300 --> 00:45:10,670
of humans and and and not necessarily to

921
00:45:16,030 --> 00:45:13,310
a dangerous extent and I would like you

922
00:45:21,370 --> 00:45:16,040
to address what may be some of the

923
00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:21,380
positive benefits to the globe of a bit

924
00:45:26,680 --> 00:45:24,650
of a one degree Celsius warming because

925
00:45:28,870 --> 00:45:26,690
everybody points to all the negatives

926
00:45:30,690 --> 00:45:28,880
but certainly if there's so many

927
00:45:33,610 --> 00:45:30,700
negatives there has to be some positives

928
00:45:35,290 --> 00:45:33,620
well yeah as the surface temperature

929
00:45:38,410 --> 00:45:35,300
went up one degree if we believe that

930
00:45:41,770 --> 00:45:38,420
data in the industrialized world life

931
00:45:44,530 --> 00:45:41,780
expectancy doubled and per capita wealth

932
00:45:52,210 --> 00:45:44,540
say in the United States went up eleven

933
00:45:54,850 --> 00:45:52,220
fold one thing that we know is co2 is a

934
00:45:56,260 --> 00:45:54,860
natural fertilizer for plants just think

935
00:45:59,860 --> 00:45:56,270
of the old high school equation of

936
00:46:03,810 --> 00:45:59,870
photosynthesis co2 plus h2o yields the

937
00:46:07,530 --> 00:46:03,820
h2o water plus carbon dioxide yields

938
00:46:09,340 --> 00:46:07,540
carbohydrates that's a vast

939
00:46:11,260 --> 00:46:09,350
simplification to the process of

940
00:46:14,250 --> 00:46:11,270
photosynthesis which is much more

941
00:46:16,990 --> 00:46:14,260
complicated but if you put more water in

942
00:46:19,150 --> 00:46:17,000
unless the place saturated you know your

943
00:46:22,720 --> 00:46:19,160
plants grow better you put more co2 in

944
00:46:25,900 --> 00:46:22,730
your plants grow better and we can show

945
00:46:28,350 --> 00:46:25,910
with satellite data we've now have since

946
00:46:31,990 --> 00:46:28,360
the late 1970s

947
00:46:35,110 --> 00:46:32,000
data on what's called the vegetation

948
00:46:39,250 --> 00:46:35,120
index which is a measure of how green

949
00:46:43,780 --> 00:46:39,260
the planet is a wonderful paper by a

950
00:46:46,020 --> 00:46:43,790
I think it is there's you 2016 paper and

951
00:46:48,460 --> 00:46:46,030
nature magazine showing the the the

952
00:46:53,650 --> 00:46:48,470
title of papers the greening of the

953
00:46:57,100 --> 00:46:53,660
earth and its drivers and it shows it's

954
00:47:00,070 --> 00:46:57,110
it's the entire glove shows the massive

955
00:47:02,770 --> 00:47:00,080
greening that's taking place over most

956
00:47:04,180 --> 00:47:02,780
of the planet there are some small areas

957
00:47:09,550 --> 00:47:04,190
of browning but they're not very much

958
00:47:12,130 --> 00:47:09,560
and the drivers they did what's called a

959
00:47:16,380 --> 00:47:12,140
factor analysis to determine what's

960
00:47:20,230 --> 00:47:16,390
causing this massive greenie about 80

961
00:47:22,030 --> 00:47:20,240
percent of it was caught simply by the

962
00:47:25,770 --> 00:47:22,040
direct fertilization effect of carbon

963
00:47:28,840 --> 00:47:25,780
dioxide five percent or so from airborne

964
00:47:31,750 --> 00:47:28,850
nitrates which are also a human

965
00:47:34,000 --> 00:47:31,760
contribution another small percent was

966
00:47:37,210 --> 00:47:34,010
from land use changes I don't know if

967
00:47:40,090 --> 00:47:37,220
you've been following the reforestation

968
00:47:42,300 --> 00:47:40,100
of eastern North America used to be kind

969
00:47:44,440 --> 00:47:42,310
of wide open parkland now it's a jungle

970
00:47:47,410 --> 00:47:44,450
once you get away from the city it's

971
00:47:48,430 --> 00:47:47,420
just huge amounts of vegetation but to

972
00:47:51,580 --> 00:47:48,440
make sure I got the number right because

973
00:47:54,430 --> 00:47:51,590
it cut out 80 percent of co2 with the

974
00:47:57,460 --> 00:47:54,440
increase in co2 and roughly 10 percent

975
00:48:00,190 --> 00:47:57,470
from other human activities so 90

976
00:48:04,360 --> 00:48:00,200
percent of the planetary greening is a

977
00:48:05,790 --> 00:48:04,370
result of our industrial activity so if

978
00:48:09,130 --> 00:48:05,800
it's good for the planet to be green

979
00:48:10,600 --> 00:48:09,140
then that's been a positive effect what

980
00:48:15,490 --> 00:48:10,610
are some of that other positive effects

981
00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:15,500
do you think of this slight warming well

982
00:48:20,440 --> 00:48:18,890
let's go back to the greening this this

983
00:48:23,440 --> 00:48:20,450
paper in nature magazine has wonderful

984
00:48:26,290 --> 00:48:23,450
maps showing where it's really draining

985
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:26,300
up a heck of a lot where it's greening

986
00:48:32,590 --> 00:48:28,490
up average and through the whole

987
00:48:35,530 --> 00:48:32,600
spectrum and places on earth that have

988
00:48:41,710 --> 00:48:35,540
the greatest increase in their

989
00:48:43,960 --> 00:48:41,720
vegetation our wait for it the South

990
00:48:47,320 --> 00:48:43,970
American tropical rainforest the lungs

991
00:48:50,050 --> 00:48:47,330
of the world the African tropical

992
00:48:52,670 --> 00:48:50,060
rainforest the lungs of the world the

993
00:48:54,740 --> 00:48:52,680
East Asian tropical rainforest

994
00:48:57,380 --> 00:48:54,750
lungs of the world they're getting

995
00:49:00,859 --> 00:48:57,390
bigger not smaller they're getting more

996
00:49:03,980 --> 00:49:00,869
dense they're exchanging more carbon

997
00:49:05,930 --> 00:49:03,990
dioxide than they were before we put all

998
00:49:08,870 --> 00:49:05,940
that co2 in the air kind of

999
00:49:12,380 --> 00:49:08,880
mind-boggling isn't it based on modeling

1000
00:49:16,010 --> 00:49:12,390
that you would say you believe in how

1001
00:49:18,290 --> 00:49:16,020
many inches are we talking about the

1002
00:49:20,030 --> 00:49:18,300
ocean rising over what period of time no

1003
00:49:23,720 --> 00:49:20,040
I would think that that you're probably

1004
00:49:26,690 --> 00:49:23,730
looking at a foot and a half in the 21st

1005
00:49:30,109 --> 00:49:26,700
century so by the end of this century in

1006
00:49:32,540 --> 00:49:30,119
in 80 years the oceans will have risen a

1007
00:49:34,430 --> 00:49:32,550
foot ahead River well though the liver

1008
00:49:37,730 --> 00:49:34,440
isn't 2 feet 2 feet because we have

1009
00:49:42,160 --> 00:49:37,740
about seven inches of sea-level rise

1010
00:49:45,170 --> 00:49:42,170
since 1900 what's interesting by the way

1011
00:49:49,880 --> 00:49:45,180
we have two ways of measuring sea level

1012
00:49:53,870 --> 00:49:49,890
rise one is with tide gauges that are in

1013
00:49:56,839 --> 00:49:53,880
ports around the planet and the other

1014
00:50:00,309 --> 00:49:56,849
one which is in satellites the tide

1015
00:50:02,900 --> 00:50:00,319
gauge gaiter tide gauge data

1016
00:50:05,900 --> 00:50:02,910
don't show any increase in the rate of

1017
00:50:10,970 --> 00:50:05,910
sea level rise at all

1018
00:50:13,059 --> 00:50:10,980
the satellite data do but there are lots

1019
00:50:16,120 --> 00:50:13,069
of questions whether the satellite data

1020
00:50:19,099 --> 00:50:16,130
it was really high enough resolution to

1021
00:50:22,190 --> 00:50:19,109
pick up these small changes in sea level

1022
00:50:23,660 --> 00:50:22,200
I mean a tie gate is a real thing it

1023
00:50:26,450 --> 00:50:23,670
suffers from the problems of the land

1024
00:50:28,880 --> 00:50:26,460
itself maybe going up or down but you

1025
00:50:30,260 --> 00:50:28,890
can usually adjust for that and you know

1026
00:50:31,039 --> 00:50:30,270
if you look at global records you don't

1027
00:50:36,190 --> 00:50:31,049
see anything that's particularly

1028
00:50:38,660 --> 00:50:36,200
alarming so from the point we are today

1029
00:50:40,339 --> 00:50:38,670
till the end of the century that would

1030
00:50:43,339 --> 00:50:40,349
be an additional one and a half feet is

1031
00:50:46,130 --> 00:50:43,349
what you would seven inches so far

1032
00:50:48,410 --> 00:50:46,140
another foot and a half to go to help us

1033
00:50:51,710 --> 00:50:48,420
understand that if we were laying on

1034
00:50:54,589 --> 00:50:51,720
Miami Beach and the oceans were a foot

1035
00:50:57,260 --> 00:50:54,599
and a half higher with that Beach still

1036
00:51:01,460 --> 00:50:57,270
exists no wood it would definitely be

1037
00:51:02,329 --> 00:51:01,470
eroded some but for much I can't tell

1038
00:51:05,410 --> 00:51:02,339
you for sure if they don't know the

1039
00:51:12,130 --> 00:51:05,420
exact pitch of the beach but

1040
00:51:16,030 --> 00:51:12,140
if you have a storm a storm surge when

1041
00:51:18,730 --> 00:51:16,040
the ocean is one and a half feet or two

1042
00:51:20,590 --> 00:51:18,740
feet higher than it was that storm surge

1043
00:51:23,980 --> 00:51:20,600
is gonna get driven inland quite a bit

1044
00:51:27,820 --> 00:51:23,990
further so you will get more damage from

1045
00:51:30,280 --> 00:51:27,830
that but again having said all this both

1046
00:51:33,280 --> 00:51:30,290
in the United States data and in global

1047
00:51:39,760 --> 00:51:33,290
data weather-related damages as a

1048
00:51:41,200 --> 00:51:39,770
function of GDP are not going up and no

1049
00:51:43,000 --> 00:51:41,210
but I do think it'd be significant if

1050
00:51:44,410 --> 00:51:43,010
people felt that Miami Beach was no

1051
00:51:46,780 --> 00:51:44,420
longer gonna exist

1052
00:51:47,890 --> 00:51:46,790
well not an adjust and the longer exists

1053
00:51:53,490 --> 00:51:47,900
that's the point

1054
00:51:55,930 --> 00:51:53,500
the people will adapt they will probably

1055
00:52:01,000 --> 00:51:55,940
well let's put it this way do you think

1056
00:52:03,520 --> 00:52:01,010
it's a great idea that from Maine all

1057
00:52:09,550 --> 00:52:03,530
the way around Florida to the Texas Gulf

1058
00:52:11,860 --> 00:52:09,560
Coast it is all beach houses and every

1059
00:52:15,910 --> 00:52:11,870
one of those beaches is subject to

1060
00:52:17,740 --> 00:52:15,920
hurricanes and so what happens when the

1061
00:52:21,400 --> 00:52:17,750
storm surge from the hurricane comes and

1062
00:52:23,220 --> 00:52:21,410
knocks down your beach house who built

1063
00:52:26,740 --> 00:52:23,230
back up who pays for it

1064
00:52:29,470 --> 00:52:26,750
well you as homeowner have highly

1065
00:52:33,700 --> 00:52:29,480
subsidized flood insurance highly

1066
00:52:35,770 --> 00:52:33,710
subsidized by whom you and me who don't

1067
00:52:38,830 --> 00:52:35,780
have the beach house and so you can

1068
00:52:40,960 --> 00:52:38,840
might as well say hurricane you you take

1069
00:52:44,020 --> 00:52:40,970
all the money that you earn you stick it

1070
00:52:47,560 --> 00:52:44,030
in a sand dune on a hurricane prone

1071
00:52:50,290 --> 00:52:47,570
beach the hurricane comes along and

1072
00:52:52,540 --> 00:52:50,300
knocks down your house and the people of

1073
00:52:55,000 --> 00:52:52,550
this country spend most of the money to

1074
00:52:59,200 --> 00:52:55,010
build it back up is that a great country

1075
00:53:01,180 --> 00:52:59,210
or what that's seriously there are

1076
00:53:04,660 --> 00:53:01,190
common-sense things that we can all

1077
00:53:07,600 --> 00:53:04,670
agree upon one of them is why in the

1078
00:53:10,930 --> 00:53:07,610
world are we allowing people to build

1079
00:53:13,090 --> 00:53:10,940
back in the area where we know it's

1080
00:53:16,480 --> 00:53:13,100
gonna get hit by a hurricane again at

1081
00:53:19,240 --> 00:53:16,490
the public's expense no you shouldn't be

1082
00:53:20,950 --> 00:53:19,250
allowed to build in that zone

1083
00:53:23,890 --> 00:53:20,960
you should say have to set him back some

1084
00:53:25,120 --> 00:53:23,900
but uh you know let me go back to my

1085
00:53:26,859 --> 00:53:25,130
Beach question though because I love

1086
00:53:29,380 --> 00:53:26,869
beaches I live close to the beach here

1087
00:53:32,020 --> 00:53:29,390
in LA and if the beaches went away that

1088
00:53:33,730 --> 00:53:32,030
would be disturbing to me so back to

1089
00:53:35,530 --> 00:53:33,740
this foot and a half and maybe this is

1090
00:53:37,870 --> 00:53:35,540
not something that you're expert on it

1091
00:53:39,880 --> 00:53:37,880
could really comment on but if the ocean

1092
00:53:42,190 --> 00:53:39,890
was a foot and a half higher than it is

1093
00:53:44,140 --> 00:53:42,200
today I'm trying to think what that

1094
00:53:45,910 --> 00:53:44,150
would do to say what the beach I'm

1095
00:53:48,700 --> 00:53:45,920
closer to which is Santa Monica beach

1096
00:53:51,370 --> 00:53:48,710
for instance we have you know the waves

1097
00:53:54,520 --> 00:53:51,380
here vary from two feet to six foot

1098
00:53:56,559 --> 00:53:54,530
waves in general okay when we get six

1099
00:54:00,309 --> 00:53:56,569
foot waves as opposed to two foot waves

1100
00:54:02,980 --> 00:54:00,319
it comes on to shore a bit more maybe an

1101
00:54:05,770 --> 00:54:02,990
extra five feet ten feet and that's it

1102
00:54:08,470 --> 00:54:05,780
is that what's the title amplitude in

1103
00:54:10,809 --> 00:54:08,480
Southern California the title amplitude

1104
00:54:11,890 --> 00:54:10,819
Michael let's do it though it's

1105
00:54:12,760 --> 00:54:11,900
additional even know what that I don't

1106
00:54:14,950 --> 00:54:12,770
know what that means

1107
00:54:17,829 --> 00:54:14,960
that's different the tides have a

1108
00:54:20,349 --> 00:54:17,839
monthly cycle oh okay and may question a

1109
00:54:22,809 --> 00:54:20,359
Mary mean low water to mean high water

1110
00:54:25,510 --> 00:54:22,819
or lowest low water to highest high

1111
00:54:27,430 --> 00:54:25,520
water you'll find that's a pretty good

1112
00:54:30,220 --> 00:54:27,440
number so if you want to see what two

1113
00:54:35,230 --> 00:54:30,230
feet look like go to the middle of the

1114
00:54:40,630 --> 00:54:35,240
tidal cycle when the moon is neither

1115
00:54:43,390 --> 00:54:40,640
full nor new and then take a look at the

1116
00:54:44,920 --> 00:54:43,400
difference in the amount of beach I'm

1117
00:54:47,380 --> 00:54:44,930
assuming the tidal cycle is probably

1118
00:54:48,910 --> 00:54:47,390
about plus or minus two feet there let's

1119
00:54:56,050 --> 00:54:48,920
take a look at the amount of beach two

1120
00:54:57,640 --> 00:54:56,060
feet okay yeah it looks if we're looking

1121
00:55:01,300 --> 00:54:57,650
at the right thing that it may be about

1122
00:55:04,329 --> 00:55:01,310
two feet okay good so take a look at how

1123
00:55:07,920 --> 00:55:04,339
much beach disappears between the lowest

1124
00:55:10,240 --> 00:55:07,930
water and the highest water and then I

1125
00:55:11,859 --> 00:55:10,250
can tell you what that is at least on

1126
00:55:13,480 --> 00:55:11,869
this beach but then also it goes to the

1127
00:55:15,400 --> 00:55:13,490
pitch of the beach I believe as you're

1128
00:55:17,800 --> 00:55:15,410
pointing out right the flatter yes the

1129
00:55:19,839 --> 00:55:17,810
more impact that's going to have here we

1130
00:55:22,329 --> 00:55:19,849
probably have a bit more of a pitch to

1131
00:55:24,069 --> 00:55:22,339
our beaches than say Miami does but I

1132
00:55:27,520 --> 00:55:24,079
can tell you that the difference is

1133
00:55:28,870 --> 00:55:27,530
probably about twenty feet because I go

1134
00:55:30,609 --> 00:55:28,880
to my beach all the time and I see that

1135
00:55:32,630 --> 00:55:30,619
I see the differences and I would say

1136
00:55:34,460 --> 00:55:32,640
it's about a 20 foot variance

1137
00:55:37,779 --> 00:55:34,470
between okay and look at that I mean

1138
00:55:40,370 --> 00:55:37,789
that's how you kind of stats of rough

1139
00:55:43,039 --> 00:55:40,380
calculation depending upon again the

1140
00:55:48,710 --> 00:55:43,049
pitch in the Welsh local geometry but

1141
00:55:50,750 --> 00:55:48,720
you know then there have been times in

1142
00:55:55,549 --> 00:55:50,760
Southern California particularly on El

1143
00:56:00,880 --> 00:55:55,559
Nino years where there have been major

1144
00:56:05,509 --> 00:56:00,890
winter storms and the wind driven water

1145
00:56:09,380 --> 00:56:05,519
piles up the shore and during the I tied

1146
00:56:13,299 --> 00:56:09,390
it in grasses into people's property

1147
00:56:18,740 --> 00:56:16,039
that would become more frequent let's

1148
00:56:21,230 --> 00:56:18,750
just get a few things randomly cow farts

1149
00:56:24,259 --> 00:56:21,240
is that really a thing or is that just a

1150
00:56:26,690 --> 00:56:24,269
way for the environmentalists to in the

1151
00:56:36,819 --> 00:56:26,700
the vegans to get people to stop eating

1152
00:56:38,569 --> 00:56:36,829
meat it's both I mean ruminants do belch

1153
00:56:43,940 --> 00:56:38,579
both directions

1154
00:56:48,400 --> 00:56:43,950
methane not that much of it by the way

1155
00:56:51,170 --> 00:56:48,410
but you know it's enough to have

1156
00:56:53,930 --> 00:56:51,180
activists have an excuse on this but

1157
00:56:55,220 --> 00:56:53,940
what percentage you know as far as

1158
00:56:59,210 --> 00:56:55,230
contributing toward the hundred percent

1159
00:57:00,890 --> 00:56:59,220
is it the well methane is a more potent

1160
00:57:05,450 --> 00:57:00,900
greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide but I

1161
00:57:09,079 --> 00:57:05,460
think atmospheric methane is increased

1162
00:57:13,940 --> 00:57:09,089
for a large number of reasons not which

1163
00:57:16,009 --> 00:57:13,950
is a lot more than cows and you know

1164
00:57:18,710 --> 00:57:16,019
what people are gonna do here you're not

1165
00:57:22,549 --> 00:57:18,720
gonna stop you're not gonna stop it

1166
00:57:25,160 --> 00:57:22,559
evam cows if the market pressures are

1167
00:57:29,569 --> 00:57:25,170
there and I know research on this is

1168
00:57:32,299 --> 00:57:29,579
going on already you're going to alter

1169
00:57:35,720 --> 00:57:32,309
certain aspects of the digestive process

1170
00:57:37,460 --> 00:57:35,730
in ruminants and dramatically reduce the

1171
00:57:40,160 --> 00:57:37,470
methane emissions and I've seen

1172
00:57:44,480 --> 00:57:40,170
literature on that already that's what

1173
00:57:46,309 --> 00:57:44,490
people do and what is the number one

1174
00:57:49,519 --> 00:57:46,319
driver of

1175
00:57:51,979 --> 00:57:49,529
greenhouse gases you know what industry

1176
00:57:54,890 --> 00:57:51,989
or what what's what you you know if

1177
00:57:56,719 --> 00:57:54,900
humans were looking to curtail something

1178
00:57:59,539 --> 00:57:56,729
what would be the most obvious thing to

1179
00:58:01,189 --> 00:57:59,549
point to to curtail well here in the

1180
00:58:04,189 --> 00:58:01,199
United States we have three major

1181
00:58:06,949 --> 00:58:04,199
sources of carbon dioxide electrical

1182
00:58:09,349 --> 00:58:06,959
generation manufacturing and

1183
00:58:10,880 --> 00:58:09,359
transportation transportation being

1184
00:58:13,400 --> 00:58:10,890
mainly automobiles and over-the-road

1185
00:58:17,660 --> 00:58:13,410
trucks and they're roughly divided one

1186
00:58:19,939 --> 00:58:17,670
third one third one third so you can

1187
00:58:23,859 --> 00:58:19,949
find a convenient target to reduce

1188
00:58:27,400 --> 00:58:23,869
emissions if you want to but you have to

1189
00:58:32,120 --> 00:58:27,410
be realistic and understand compromise

1190
00:58:35,779 --> 00:58:32,130
for example if you change a if you if

1191
00:58:39,069 --> 00:58:35,789
you substitute natural gas for to

1192
00:58:42,019 --> 00:58:39,079
generate electricity in place of coal

1193
00:58:44,359 --> 00:58:42,029
gas is more efficient and it produces

1194
00:58:47,299 --> 00:58:44,369
about a little bit less than half the

1195
00:58:49,819 --> 00:58:47,309
carbon dioxide per kilowatt hour that a

1196
00:58:56,449 --> 00:58:49,829
coal-fired power plant does which is why

1197
00:58:58,789 --> 00:58:56,459
by the way since 2005 the United States

1198
00:59:01,640 --> 00:58:58,799
has reduced its carbon dioxide emissions

1199
00:59:05,329 --> 00:59:01,650
more than any other nation on earth not

1200
00:59:08,420 --> 00:59:05,339
to save the planet but because it was we

1201
00:59:10,910 --> 00:59:08,430
discovered that we can easily break

1202
00:59:14,959 --> 00:59:10,920
rocks underneath the surface fracking

1203
00:59:16,489 --> 00:59:14,969
and get natural gas out I mean some of

1204
00:59:18,140 --> 00:59:16,499
those plants I understand some of those

1205
00:59:19,699 --> 00:59:18,150
Samoas wells and produced for a hundred

1206
00:59:22,069 --> 00:59:19,709
years yeah and that's the important

1207
00:59:24,410 --> 00:59:22,079
point it had nothing to do with global

1208
00:59:27,529 --> 00:59:24,420
warming it was the good old free-market

1209
00:59:31,400 --> 00:59:27,539
in good old green huh

1210
00:59:34,279 --> 00:59:31,410
yeah agreed yeah right and and you know

1211
00:59:39,410 --> 00:59:34,289
for people who who are concerned about

1212
00:59:45,259 --> 00:59:39,420
fracking I urge you to go visit a modern

1213
00:59:47,180 --> 00:59:45,269
fracked natural gas facility where the

1214
00:59:50,569 --> 00:59:47,190
footprint the surface footprint is just

1215
00:59:52,009 --> 00:59:50,579
minimal and these things produce years

1216
00:59:55,789 --> 00:59:52,019
and years and years and years it's

1217
00:59:57,650 --> 00:59:55,799
really quite remarkable you know it

1218
00:59:59,420 --> 00:59:57,660
wasn't lost on a lot of people studying

1219
01:00:03,680 --> 00:59:59,430
the last election

1220
01:00:06,680 --> 01:00:03,690
that where Clinton lost or where Trump

1221
01:00:08,539 --> 01:00:06,690
won was very very congruent with the

1222
01:00:09,160 --> 01:00:08,549
shale formations in the eastern United

1223
01:00:12,799 --> 01:00:09,170
States

1224
01:00:14,870 --> 01:00:12,809
what about electric cars because they

1225
01:00:19,279 --> 01:00:14,880
have to be get their energy somewhere

1226
01:00:21,769 --> 01:00:19,289
and electricity tends to oftentimes come

1227
01:00:23,329 --> 01:00:21,779
from coal and therefore be the dirtiest

1228
01:00:25,220 --> 01:00:23,339
type of energy so our electric cars

1229
01:00:29,239 --> 01:00:25,230
really good for the environment

1230
01:00:33,319 --> 01:00:29,249
I've seen some end and studies having to

1231
01:00:35,420 --> 01:00:33,329
do with you know mining the minerals

1232
01:00:40,339 --> 01:00:35,430
that are associated with electrical cars

1233
01:00:44,089 --> 01:00:40,349
and then manufacturing and electricity

1234
01:00:48,140 --> 01:00:44,099
and its sources it's certainly not the

1235
01:00:53,569 --> 01:00:48,150
panacea that that people think they're

1236
01:00:55,940 --> 01:00:53,579
gonna be especially if the car is fueled

1237
01:00:57,349 --> 01:00:55,950
by a fossil fuel-fired power plant I

1238
01:00:58,849 --> 01:00:57,359
kept you know when you talk about

1239
01:01:02,120 --> 01:00:58,859
electric cars I'm sorry that brings up

1240
01:01:04,279 --> 01:01:02,130
but a related subject to me

1241
01:01:05,630 --> 01:01:04,289
let's leave California out of this

1242
01:01:09,620 --> 01:01:05,640
because you're so tectonically active

1243
01:01:13,069 --> 01:01:09,630
but still can be taken care of

1244
01:01:16,069 --> 01:01:13,079
the tenancy throughout history is for

1245
01:01:16,549 --> 01:01:16,079
power to become denser our energy

1246
01:01:21,160 --> 01:01:16,559
sources

1247
01:01:28,839 --> 01:01:21,170
once upon a time were fires and caves

1248
01:01:33,019 --> 01:01:28,849
would fire homes coal-fired places

1249
01:01:35,690 --> 01:01:33,029
liquid fuel fired etc then on up to

1250
01:01:38,329 --> 01:01:35,700
nuclear which is the densest source of

1251
01:01:43,729 --> 01:01:38,339
energy that we have nuclear does not

1252
01:01:45,829 --> 01:01:43,739
emit any carbon dioxide and one of my

1253
01:01:49,400 --> 01:01:45,839
measures of a person's sincerity about

1254
01:01:51,890 --> 01:01:49,410
their concern about the climate is if

1255
01:01:54,559 --> 01:01:51,900
they will accept nuclear power as a big

1256
01:01:56,769 --> 01:01:54,569
substitute for both manufacturing and

1257
01:02:03,979 --> 01:01:56,779
transportation

1258
01:02:06,829 --> 01:02:03,989
and powered by a non co2 emitting

1259
01:02:08,089 --> 01:02:06,839
nuclear plant and if they're not for

1260
01:02:10,099 --> 01:02:08,099
that I think well you're really not

1261
01:02:11,930 --> 01:02:10,109
serious because you're not gonna run a

1262
01:02:13,010 --> 01:02:11,940
none solar energy and windmills I don't

1263
01:02:15,890 --> 01:02:13,020
care what

1264
01:02:18,770 --> 01:02:15,900
leadership in the California Legislature

1265
01:02:21,109 --> 01:02:18,780
thinks it's just not gonna be that way

1266
01:02:23,570 --> 01:02:21,119
so what would that person's explanation

1267
01:02:26,120 --> 01:02:23,580
be as to why they believe in global

1268
01:02:27,680 --> 01:02:26,130
warming and that greenhouse gases are

1269
01:02:31,760 --> 01:02:27,690
causing it and we need to do something

1270
01:02:35,510 --> 01:02:31,770
about it but no not nuclear human

1271
01:02:39,040 --> 01:02:35,520
rationality I mean the problem is that

1272
01:02:45,200 --> 01:02:39,050
so many people who are just obsessed

1273
01:02:48,470 --> 01:02:45,210
with climate change are obsessed against

1274
01:02:50,359 --> 01:02:48,480
nuclear power what would be the

1275
01:02:53,750 --> 01:02:50,369
rationale if they if they were arguing

1276
01:02:56,089 --> 01:02:53,760
with you over dinner what argument would

1277
01:02:57,859 --> 01:02:56,099
they put out there as to yeah Patrick I

1278
01:03:01,310 --> 01:02:57,869
hear but I know we should not do nuclear

1279
01:03:03,470 --> 01:03:01,320
because oh well there was Noble

1280
01:03:07,460 --> 01:03:03,480
excuse me Chernobyl was an uncontained

1281
01:03:10,220 --> 01:03:07,470
reactor with an experiment being done on

1282
01:03:14,900 --> 01:03:10,230
it that was highly irresponsible or we

1283
01:03:17,510 --> 01:03:14,910
have Fukushima oh my god Fukushima

1284
01:03:20,720 --> 01:03:17,520
reactor complex was designed so the

1285
01:03:24,710 --> 01:03:20,730
emergency power was between the reactors

1286
01:03:28,579 --> 01:03:24,720
and the ocean so if that was ever gonna

1287
01:03:31,370 --> 01:03:28,589
be a tsunami which that was in a very

1288
01:03:33,530 --> 01:03:31,380
tsunami prone place the emergency power

1289
01:03:36,470 --> 01:03:33,540
was gonna get knocked off and that's

1290
01:03:38,900 --> 01:03:36,480
what happened in Fukushima how about the

1291
01:03:40,490 --> 01:03:38,910
cost of nuclear how does it compare with

1292
01:03:43,220 --> 01:03:40,500
fossil fuels and how does it compare

1293
01:03:46,339 --> 01:03:43,230
with solar well that's that those

1294
01:03:48,500 --> 01:03:46,349
numbers are changing all the time my

1295
01:03:50,570 --> 01:03:48,510
understanding is that there's something

1296
01:03:54,770 --> 01:03:50,580
called the levelized cost has to do with

1297
01:03:56,540 --> 01:03:54,780
the cost to get the resource the cost to

1298
01:03:58,849 --> 01:03:56,550
build the plant the cost around the

1299
01:04:01,550 --> 01:03:58,859
plant cost of transport the fuel all

1300
01:04:02,180 --> 01:04:01,560
that good stuff of the major fuel

1301
01:04:06,260 --> 01:04:02,190
sources

1302
01:04:11,079 --> 01:04:06,270
I believe levelized cost of new national

1303
01:04:16,370 --> 01:04:11,089
natural gas power plant is the lowest

1304
01:04:20,060 --> 01:04:16,380
the highest level ice cost is offshore

1305
01:04:23,150 --> 01:04:20,070
wind and you know you know that's a

1306
01:04:26,720 --> 01:04:23,160
really harsh environment to put rotating

1307
01:04:28,990 --> 01:04:26,730
metal equipment in and it turns out that

1308
01:04:31,490 --> 01:04:29,000
the life expectancy of an offshore wind

1309
01:04:34,670 --> 01:04:31,500
turbine now turns out to be half of what

1310
01:04:37,160 --> 01:04:34,680
they were advertised as in fact

1311
01:04:37,700 --> 01:04:37,170
Germany's now started to get away from

1312
01:04:40,640 --> 01:04:37,710
it

1313
01:04:43,940 --> 01:04:40,650
Germany is building regular natural

1314
01:04:45,860 --> 01:04:43,950
gas-fired plants and they're complaining

1315
01:04:47,930 --> 01:04:45,870
because your natural gas is so expensive

1316
01:04:49,790 --> 01:04:47,940
well it is because they're buying it

1317
01:04:50,510 --> 01:04:49,800
from Russians how about we ship you some

1318
01:04:53,750 --> 01:04:50,520
we got plenty

1319
01:04:56,180 --> 01:04:53,760
you'll undercut their price any time and

1320
01:04:59,260 --> 01:04:56,190
we are for beginning of shift natural

1321
01:05:01,240 --> 01:04:59,270
gas to Europe but not very much but yeah

1322
01:05:03,320 --> 01:05:01,250
you can do that

1323
01:05:04,700 --> 01:05:03,330
ok we're running out of time so let's

1324
01:05:06,170 --> 01:05:04,710
just tick through a couple things real

1325
01:05:10,880 --> 01:05:06,180
quick if you don't mind

1326
01:05:14,030 --> 01:05:10,890
Al Gore what a dumb guy bad guy what's

1327
01:05:16,910 --> 01:05:14,040
your explanation for Al Gore he knew an

1328
01:05:20,390 --> 01:05:16,920
issue that he thought would create a lot

1329
01:05:25,610 --> 01:05:20,400
of power for him and it did he almost

1330
01:05:28,370 --> 01:05:25,620
was elected president and it certainly

1331
01:05:30,740 --> 01:05:28,380
has been a cash cow for him I mean he's

1332
01:05:32,750 --> 01:05:30,750
got that nice new was have an oceanfront

1333
01:05:36,920 --> 01:05:32,760
home in Southern California something

1334
01:05:42,980 --> 01:05:36,930
like that I mean and you can get around

1335
01:05:43,790 --> 01:05:42,990
to it so you know kind of like an

1336
01:05:46,280 --> 01:05:43,800
opportunist

1337
01:05:48,980 --> 01:05:46,290
well I'm not gonna call ina I can't call

1338
01:05:50,780 --> 01:05:48,990
names I work for a company where we're

1339
01:05:53,270 --> 01:05:50,790
enjoying from calling people's name

1340
01:05:56,090 --> 01:05:53,280
people names you so you can you can

1341
01:05:58,370 --> 01:05:56,100
supply your own name what about what is

1342
01:06:02,120 --> 01:05:58,380
the explanation for when you ever hear

1343
01:06:03,830 --> 01:06:02,130
everybody say 97% 98% whatever the

1344
01:06:09,410 --> 01:06:03,840
percentages they throw out of scientists

1345
01:06:10,820 --> 01:06:09,420
agree you know what my dates probably

1346
01:06:16,520 --> 01:06:10,830
aren't gonna be right and I may have

1347
01:06:19,700 --> 01:06:16,530
inverted the baby but around 1975 97 and

1348
01:06:21,110 --> 01:06:19,710
98 percent of all biomedical scientists

1349
01:06:25,280 --> 01:06:21,120
believe that babies should sleep on

1350
01:06:26,840 --> 01:06:25,290
their stomach and five years later 97 or

1351
01:06:29,900 --> 01:06:26,850
98 percent believe babies should sleep

1352
01:06:35,090 --> 01:06:29,910
on their back in fact when you name any

1353
01:06:39,020 --> 01:06:35,100
scientific paradigm issue whatever about

1354
01:06:40,640 --> 01:06:39,030
97% of all scientists probably agree in

1355
01:06:42,470 --> 01:06:40,650
if something comes along that changes

1356
01:06:45,560 --> 01:06:42,480
their mind and then they'll change their

1357
01:06:47,390 --> 01:06:45,570
mind all at once so that figure to me is

1358
01:06:50,510 --> 01:06:47,400
a meaningless figure and by the way

1359
01:06:51,920 --> 01:06:50,520
three percent if indeed it is three

1360
01:06:55,480 --> 01:06:51,930
percent are probably the interesting

1361
01:06:58,160 --> 01:06:55,490
ones well and there's also a groupthink

1362
01:07:01,760 --> 01:06:58,170
element to it and a peer pressure

1363
01:07:03,920 --> 01:07:01,770
element to it correct oh sure

1364
01:07:06,470 --> 01:07:03,930
you ought to take a look at like the

1365
01:07:08,630 --> 01:07:06,480
first 70 or 80 pages of Thomas Kuhns

1366
01:07:10,460 --> 01:07:08,640
1962 classic which is still in print

1367
01:07:13,160 --> 01:07:10,470
called the structure of scientific

1368
01:07:15,020 --> 01:07:13,170
revolutions in which he describes and in

1369
01:07:16,250 --> 01:07:15,030
fact it what scientists do most of their

1370
01:07:18,830 --> 01:07:16,260
careers most scientists for their

1371
01:07:22,040 --> 01:07:18,840
careers to spend their careers agreeing

1372
01:07:24,680 --> 01:07:22,050
with everybody else and supporting

1373
01:07:31,220 --> 01:07:24,690
whatever the reigning paradigm in their

1374
01:07:32,930 --> 01:07:31,230
issue is and then eventually somebody

1375
01:07:34,840 --> 01:07:32,940
comes along and says lists data its

1376
01:07:37,750 --> 01:07:34,850
anomalous and doesn't fit the paradigm

1377
01:07:41,180 --> 01:07:37,760
and the paradigm falls apart

1378
01:07:44,510 --> 01:07:41,190
unfortunately kuhn wrote his book and

1379
01:07:47,660 --> 01:07:44,520
didn't mention that paradigms might

1380
01:07:50,780 --> 01:07:47,670
become stickier and stickier otherwise

1381
01:07:53,510 --> 01:07:50,790
there'd be more reluctance to change if

1382
01:07:55,340 --> 01:07:53,520
we haste say had monopoly funding for

1383
01:07:56,870 --> 01:07:55,350
that paradigm and all that funding came

1384
01:07:59,270 --> 01:07:56,880
from a government that had a political

1385
01:08:03,710 --> 01:07:59,280
agenda that is the case in global

1386
01:08:05,690 --> 01:08:03,720
climate change and you know the paradigm

1387
01:08:10,430 --> 01:08:05,700
is really really sticky the paradigm is

1388
01:08:13,010 --> 01:08:10,440
that those climate models work and what

1389
01:08:15,320 --> 01:08:13,020
about the the shaming element of it you

1390
01:08:16,340 --> 01:08:15,330
know I talked about the fact that you

1391
01:08:20,690 --> 01:08:16,350
know if you're against gay marriage

1392
01:08:23,240 --> 01:08:20,700
today you're a homophobe well Obama was

1393
01:08:25,010 --> 01:08:23,250
elected being against gay marriage just

1394
01:08:27,260 --> 01:08:25,020
twelve years ago and now you're a

1395
01:08:30,559 --> 01:08:27,270
homophobe I imagine that if you're not a

1396
01:08:31,610 --> 01:08:30,569
believer in climate change as the

1397
01:08:32,750 --> 01:08:31,620
activists would like you to believe

1398
01:08:34,160 --> 01:08:32,760
there's some type of shaming that's

1399
01:08:36,050 --> 01:08:34,170
involved if you're in the academic

1400
01:08:38,390 --> 01:08:36,060
community well I mean I really don't

1401
01:08:40,070 --> 01:08:38,400
know anybody who's cognizant to that

1402
01:08:42,349 --> 01:08:40,080
spheric science doesn't believe that

1403
01:08:46,849 --> 01:08:42,359
climate changes okay

1404
01:08:50,150 --> 01:08:46,859
and so I guess you can put me in the 97%

1405
01:08:52,880 --> 01:08:50,160
after all I said that probably a

1406
01:08:55,850 --> 01:08:52,890
considerable portion of

1407
01:08:58,240 --> 01:08:55,860
the warming that began neatly 1970s has

1408
01:09:01,700 --> 01:08:58,250
something to do with human activity

1409
01:09:03,380 --> 01:09:01,710
what's not life this cuz I don't think

1410
01:09:05,720 --> 01:09:03,390
the world's coming to an end I'll tell

1411
01:09:07,220 --> 01:09:05,730
you what we can chain people for that

1412
01:09:09,620 --> 01:09:07,230
thing the world's coming to an end and

1413
01:09:12,380 --> 01:09:09,630
you know what

1414
01:09:14,330 --> 01:09:12,390
you do very good go short on Apokolips

1415
01:09:16,670 --> 01:09:14,340
futures I've counted nine environmental

1416
01:09:19,160 --> 01:09:16,680
apocalypses in my life that we're going

1417
01:09:19,970 --> 01:09:19,170
to be the end of life as we knew it life

1418
01:09:22,730 --> 01:09:19,980
as we know it

1419
01:09:25,430 --> 01:09:22,740
global warming is only the reigning one

1420
01:09:28,070 --> 01:09:25,440
right now last question according to

1421
01:09:31,850 --> 01:09:28,080
NASA this is in the LA Times editorial

1422
01:09:35,660 --> 01:09:31,860
18 of the 19 warmest years ever recorded

1423
01:09:37,280 --> 01:09:35,670
have occurred since 2000 the last five

1424
01:09:40,490 --> 01:09:37,290
years have been the hottest since

1425
01:09:44,390 --> 01:09:40,500
record-keeping began in 1880 in July set

1426
01:09:49,690 --> 01:09:44,400
an all-time record true they sure no big

1427
01:09:57,770 --> 01:09:53,500
between about 6 & 9 thousand years ago

1428
01:10:00,320 --> 01:09:57,780
we we know that evidence from fossil

1429
01:10:03,770 --> 01:10:00,330
trees that are underneath the tundra

1430
01:10:06,020 --> 01:10:03,780
that can only have been in Eurasia about

1431
01:10:08,090 --> 01:10:06,030
13 degrees Fahrenheit warmer in July

1432
01:10:09,380 --> 01:10:08,100
than the 20th century average for those

1433
01:10:11,330 --> 01:10:09,390
trees to be growing there

1434
01:10:12,500 --> 01:10:11,340
you think the global temperature might

1435
01:10:16,670 --> 01:10:12,510
have been a little bit warmer then

1436
01:10:18,410 --> 01:10:16,680
probably so you know it happens and but

1437
01:10:21,670 --> 01:10:18,420
here's the thing the thing you got to

1438
01:10:24,680 --> 01:10:21,680
remember we are in a warming trend and

1439
01:10:26,990 --> 01:10:24,690
the warming trend bears some

1440
01:10:28,910 --> 01:10:27,000
relationship to human activity so if

1441
01:10:30,890 --> 01:10:28,920
you're if you're at the end of a warming

1442
01:10:33,050 --> 01:10:30,900
trend the fact that you're going to have

1443
01:10:35,090 --> 01:10:33,060
the warmest temperatures occurring at

1444
01:10:37,520 --> 01:10:35,100
the end the end of a warming trend is

1445
01:10:39,800 --> 01:10:37,530
only logical that's just the way it

1446
01:10:41,600 --> 01:10:39,810
would have to be and that's that's like